Confidence Intervals in Claw
All line ratings in Gridraven Claw are computed using high-fidelity thermal balance models. To provide a comprehensive view of grid potential while maintaining strict safety standards, the system generates a probabilistic distribution of capacities rather than a single deterministic value.
The output for every span includes:
- Point Estimate: The median (P50) line rating, representing the most likely capacity
- Confidence Intervals: Probabilistic ratings at 50%, 75%, 90%, 95%, 98%, and 99% reliability levels.
- Methodology: These intervals are derived using Monte Carlo sampling ($N = 1000$), which quantifies the impact of weather uncertainty on the final ampacity.
This approach enables operators to move beyond "worst-case" assumptions and adopt a risk-aware utilization of transmission infrastructure.
Understanding Probabilistic DLR
The Probabilistic Advantage
Traditional line ratings are deterministic—they provide a single number based on static weather assumptions. However, weather is inherently variable. Gridraven’s Probabilistic DLR acknowledges this by providing a range of possible capacities. This empowers operators to choose the exact balance between additional capacity and operational security based on the current grid state.
From Weather Uncertainty to Rating Reliability
The primary driver of uncertainty in DLR is wind speed at the conductor level. Gridraven quantifies this at the input stage to ensure safety at the output stage:
- Wind Speed Confidence (95% CI): We predict a range between a Lower Bound (conservative) and an Upper Bound (optimistic). For safety-critical calculations, the system prioritizes the lower bound.
- Percentiles of Reliability: The resulting DLR values (e.g., DLR 95, DLR 98) answer the fundamental question: "What is the probability that the line can safely carry this load given the predicted weather distribution?"
The "Certainty vs. Capacity" trade-off There is a direct physical trade-off in power systems: to increase certainty (safety), the allowed Ampacity value must be more conservative.
| Metric | Operational Confidence | Residual Risk | Recommended Application |
| DLR (Most Probable) | 50% | High (50%) | Forecasting congestion costs; Non-critical market studies. |
| DLR 75 | 75% | Moderate (25%) | Short-term emergency dispatch where minor risk is acceptable. |
| DLR 90 | 90% | Low (10%) | Standard operations for non-critical lines. |
| DLR 95 | 95% | Very Low (5%) | Standard recommendation for high-voltage operational limits. |
| DLR 98 | 98% | Extremely Low (2%) | Critical infrastructure; Lines supplying sensitive loads; Extreme weather events. |